I have been listening and reading the news about the increased sanctions against Iran, like everyone else. It was not until I read this latest news that something clicked into place.
- Business Week Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) — A European Union embargo on Iranian oil will probably be phased in to protect countries with the greatest reliance on imports from the country, according to an EU official familiar with the talks.
- Telegraph (UK): Japan agrees to cut dependency on Iranian oil as US scores significant coup against regime…
However, any embargos are only likely to come into effect gradually. Refiners generally buy two thirds of their crude on long term contracts, and these will probably be honoured. The proposed EU embargo – which all member states are understood to endorse in principle – is likely to be phased in over a period of up to 12 months.
As I said earlier, there is little risk of a US-Israeli attack on Iran because of the disastrous effect it will surely have on oil prices.
How to avoid this? Get the “allies” (Europe) to reduce dependence on Iranian oil until a halt in Iran’s oil is barely felt in Europe and North America.
An attack after such a reduction of dependence on Iranian oil, will barely affect oil prices except that the non-European countries will feel a pinch and really, who cares about them when we are fighting a “War!” on terrorism/Iran/Islam?
China might disagree, but it could be placated somehow, with US dollars (not Israeli shekels). The rest of Asia, Africa and South America don’t carry sufficient power to merit America’s attention.
I am convinced that once the West’s oil dependence on Iranian oil is taken care of, a US-Israel attack on Iran will follow within days.
Israel wants it and America is desperate to oblige.
There will be no invasion, just an attack that, over a period of a week or two, will destroy all of Iran’s fighting capacity and most if not all, of Iran’s infrastructure a la Iraq. It will be done by the US under a fig-leaf covering of the “Coalition of the Willing” (Europe) and the Coalition of the Servile (Middle-East); Israel’s role, if any, will remain protected.
Who gives a damn about long-term consequences?
Post script: This is an excellent analysis by Mehmet Kalyoncu, on the planning and events that are today, leading us to the brink of a “War!” on Iran.