Penjihad's Blog

"To comfort the afflicted and afflict the comfortable"

When to attack Iran

I have been listening and reading the news about the increased sanctions against Iran, like everyone else. It was not until I read this latest news that something clicked into place.
  • Business Week  Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) — A European Union embargo on Iranian oil will probably be phased in to protect countries with the greatest reliance on imports from the country, according to an EU official familiar with the talks.
  • Telegraph (UK): Japan agrees to cut dependency on Iranian oil as US scores significant coup against regime…
    However, any embargos are only likely to come into effect gradually. Refiners generally buy two thirds of their crude on long term contracts, and these will probably be honoured. The proposed EU embargo – which all member states are understood to endorse in principle – is likely to be phased in over a period of up to 12 months.
As I said earlier, there is little risk of a US-Israeli attack on Iran because of the disastrous effect it will surely have on oil prices.
How to avoid this? Get the “allies” (Europe) to reduce dependence on Iranian oil until a halt in Iran’s oil is barely felt in Europe and North America.
 
An attack after such a reduction of dependence on Iranian oil, will barely affect oil prices except that the non-European countries will feel a pinch and really, who cares about them when we are fighting a “War!” on terrorism/Iran/Islam?
 
China might disagree, but it could be placated somehow, with US dollars (not Israeli shekels). The rest of Asia, Africa and South America don’t carry sufficient power to merit America’s attention.
 
I am convinced that once the West’s oil dependence on Iranian oil is taken care of, a US-Israel attack on Iran will follow within days.
Israel wants it and America is desperate to oblige.
 
There will be no invasion, just an attack that, over a period of a week or two, will destroy all of Iran’s fighting capacity and most if not all, of Iran’s infrastructure a la Iraq. It will be done by the US under a fig-leaf covering of the “Coalition of the Willing” (Europe) and the Coalition of the Servile (Middle-East); Israel’s role, if any, will remain protected.
 
Who gives a damn about long-term consequences?
 
Post script:  This is an excellent analysis by Mehmet Kalyoncu, on the planning and events that are today, leading us to the brink of a “War!” on Iran.

January 15, 2012 - Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

1 Comment »

  1. As a resident of Pakistan I am worried about the consequences of an attack on Iran on similar pretexts as on Iraq. In fact it would appear that a lot of the problems Pakistan is currently suffering have their basis on the impending attack on Iran.This country has to be lined up for the encirclement but considering Pakistan’s huge association with Iran and its large Shia population, that is proving to be complicated. It is also speculated that it is not the so called nuclear issue of Iran that is critical for the US as it is the containment of China.Libya was part of the same process alongwith the moves in South China sea area and Australia. We may well be heading for a world conflagration because imperial hubris and greed have no limits or sanity. If oil prices shoot up Pakistan will surely be bankrupted and the people may have to revert to bicycles. The people of the USA getting their feeding from the pliant media are already in favour of an attack and it is now only left for the few sane voices in the US to somehow prevail and stop the madness emanating from the White House, continuing for over a decade. Can’t they see that our planet is very small and we must all share it. If the law of the jungle prevails there may be nothing left and all mankind including the evil ones will be losers. Whom the Gods will destroy they first make mad. The human soul is lost and civilization is degraded. We can hope that God takes pity and instills some sense unless He has other plans and surely He is the best of planners.

    Comment by Khalid Mumtaz | January 16, 2012 | Reply


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